Trump 2.0: What’s Next for Day 1 CPT Students and H-1B Visa Holders?

As former President Donald Trump reclaims the White House, the landscape for international students, skilled immigrants, and foreign workers is set to undergo yet another seismic shift. While Trump’s “America First” doctrine has long promised to tighten immigration policies, its impact on Day 1 CPT students, H-1B visa applicants, and the global tech industry could be far-reaching.

Table of Content

• H-1B Visa: A Battle Over America’s Skilled Workforce
• A Decade of Declining H-1B Approvals
• Day 1 CPT: A Lifeline for International Students or a Loophole Under Threat?
• Tech Industry and Economic Implications
• Is Canada the Winner?
• What Should International Students and H-1B Holders Do?

H-1B Visa: A Battle Over America’s Skilled Workforce

According to a Goldman Sachs report released in November 2024, the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) is expected to implement stricter rules for H-1B visas by the end of the year. The most significant change? A narrowing of the definition of "specialty occupations," makes it harder for candidates whose degrees are not directly related to their job roles to qualify for the visa.

This shift would have immediate consequences, particularly for Indian IT outsourcing firms such as Cognizant, Infosys, and Tata Consultancy Services, which have historically been among the largest sponsors of H-1B visas. While these companies have already reduced their reliance on H-1B workers under the Biden administration’s tighter regulations, additional restrictions could delay hiring, increase operational costs, and put further pressure on profit margins.

A Decade of Declining H-1B Approvals

The U.S. has seen a steady decline in H-1B approvals since their peak in 2016-2017. The Trump administration’s first term (2017-2020) introduced policies that significantly increased denial rates, particularly for initial applications and extensions. While the Biden administration reversed some of these restrictions, the pendulum now appears to be swinging back.

Data from USCIS indicates that:

• The denial rate for H-1B petitions peaked at 18% in 2019 before dropping to 2.2% under Biden in 2022.
• Major IT service providers, once dominant H-1B sponsors, have seen their share of approvals shrink as Big Tech firms like Amazon, Google, and Meta have ramped up sponsorships.
• The average H-1B salary has increased, as companies prioritize higher-skilled and higher-paid applicants to meet tougher USCIS scrutiny.

If Trump’s second term reinstates his previous H-1B policies, companies could face higher wage requirements, fewer visa renewals, and stricter oversight of job qualifications.

Day 1 CPT: A Lifeline for International Students or a Loophole Under Threat?

While much of the focus has been on the H-1B visa, Trump’s return also raises concerns about Day 1 CPT (Curricular Practical Training) programs—a crucial alternative for students seeking work authorization while studying.

Day 1 CPT programs, which allow international students to work immediately upon enrolling in a master's or doctoral program, have gained popularity, particularly among students whose H-1B applications were denied or who wish to maintain legal status after their Optional Practical Training (OPT) expires. However, these programs have long faced scrutiny from immigration authorities.

Potential challenges for Day 1 CPT students under Trump 2.0:

1. More USCIS Audits: Under the Trump administration, USCIS frequently investigated institutions offering CPT from Day 1, questioning whether students were enrolled in “legitimate” programs.
2. Tighter Visa Renewals: Students in Day 1 CPT programs may face higher risks of visa denials or additional questioning at consular interviews.
3. Potential Ban on Day 1 CPT Schools: While unlikely, USCIS could impose new regulations that prevent immediate CPT use, restricting work opportunities for thousands of students.

If Trump follows through with policies that limit work authorization options for international students, more F-1 visa holders could struggle to transition to employment after graduation.

Tech Industry and Economic Implications

The implications of these policies extend beyond students and visa holders. The U.S. tech industry, which relies heavily on international talent, could face renewed challenges.

• Labor Shortages: The STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics) sector accounts for 67% of all H-1B visa approvals, with industries such as artificial intelligence, semiconductor manufacturing, and biotech particularly dependent on foreign workers.
• Higher Costs for Employers: If wage requirements increase, companies may offshore more jobs to India, Canada, and Europe, accelerating brain drain from the U.S.
• Declining International Enrollment: The number of international students applying to U.S. universities dropped by nearly 20% during Trump’s first term, with many opting for Canada, the UK, or Australia instead.

Tech leaders, including Elon Musk, who has publicly credited his H-1B status for his success, have warned against restrictive policies that could hamper innovation and economic growth.

Is Canada the Winner?

As the U.S. tightens immigration policies, Canada has positioned itself as an attractive alternative. Since 2023, the Canadian government has actively recruited highly skilled workers on U.S. visas, offering streamlined work permits for H-1B holders unable to secure extensions.

Google Trends data shows a 1,270% increase in searches for "move to Canada" following Trump’s election win. Immigration lawyers have also reported a surge in H-1B holders exploring Canada’s Express Entry and Global Talent Stream programs.

What Should International Students and H-1B Holders Do?

For those currently in the U.S. on an F-1 or H-1B visa, preparation is key. Experts recommend:

1. Exploring Green Card Pathways: The EB-2 National Interest Waiver (NIW) and EB-1A Extraordinary Ability visas offer alternative routes to permanent residency.
2. Considering Day 1 CPT Programs: While risky, Day 1 CPT remains a viable option for those needing work authorization after OPT.
3. Building Skills in High-Demand Fields: Advanced degrees in AI, cybersecurity, and biotech could enhance job prospects.
4. Keeping a Backup Plan: Research Canadian, UK, or European work visa options in case of increased H-1B restrictions.