Second H1B Lottery 2025 FY: Selection Estimations

Update on August 5, 2024: Since August 1st, we have continuously received results from our students that they have updates from the lawyers and employers. According to our students' report and USCIS' announcement, "We selected 13,607 beneficiaries in the second selection for the FY 2025 H-1B regular cap, resulting in 14,534 selected registrations." We can estimate that during the second H1B visa lottery, the selected rate reaches 3%, in total 28.5% in the 2 times of H1B visa lottery in the 2025 fiscal year. What is the possible rate for the 2026 FY? According to our long-term observation, the possible rate might be highly related to the result of the presidential election at the end of 2024. If the president is more open to the immigration policy, then the rate will be approximately higher than this year, which leads to 30-35%. However, if the result goes to the conservative one on immigration policy, the rate might be similar to this year, around 25%.

The H1B visa process has undergone significant changes this year, impacting the likelihood of a second lottery. Under the new rule, each applicant is limited to one registration per fiscal year, a shift from previous years where multiple registrations were possible. This change is expected to reduce the number of available slots for the second H1B lottery, as there are fewer redundant registrations to release back into the pool. However, today, USCIS announced that they will conduct the second H1B lottery in the 2025 Fiscal Year. Here’s a detailed breakdown of the latest updates.

Second Round of Selections

USCIS has announced the need for more registrations to meet the FY 2025 cap, meaning another lottery round will be conducted. If you registered but weren’t initially selected, you might still be picked in this second round. This round will include all eligible regular cap and master’s cap registrations.

Key Points

Eligibility: Only previously unselected registrations are eligible for the second lottery; no new registrations will be accepted.

Quota: The Master Cap is already filled, so there will be no second lottery for it. However, applicants with a Master's degree or higher who meet the eligibility criteria will be included in the Regular Cap for the second lottery.

Dates: The exact dates will be announced soon, expected shortly.

Notification: Selected registrants will receive instructions for submitting their applications through their USCIS online accounts.

The Odds & Selection Estimations

This year marks the first time H-1B registration is based on unique beneficiaries, making past data less reliable. When compared to FY 2023, the total number of eligible registrations is similar, with a final selection rate of 26%. In FY 2023, each candidate was allowed multiple registrations, resulting in a lower selection rate. This year, the Master's cap has already been filled, requiring a Master's degree from a non-profit U.S. higher education institution, while the regular cap does not require a U.S. degree.

The need for a second lottery indicates that many registrations selected in the first round could not submit their applications, suggesting that many overseas registrants lack stable U.S. job opportunities. Historical data shows that in FY 2021 and FY 2022, the selection rates exceeded 40%, but the second lottery selection rate fluctuated between 5% and 10%. Apart from the issue of duplicate registrations, fewer people were drawn in the first round during these years, justifying the occurrence of a second or even third lottery. The overall numbers for FY 2025 are quite similar to FY 2023. The previously unlikely second lottery now seems possible, possibly due to it being an election year. Additionally, past data suggests that USCIS might be attempting to increase the selection rate. With this year’s new rule of one registration per person, the second lottery selection rate might be slightly lower than last year but slightly higher than in previous years. Based on these assumptions, the selection rate is expected to be between 26% and 35%, with about 20,000 to 40,000 registrations being selected, giving a probability of around 5.8% to 12.5%.

What to Do If Selected

If you are selected in the second round, your USCIS online account will be updated with a selection notice. This notice includes details on where and when to file your petition. Check your account regularly and follow the instructions carefully.

Next Steps for Selected Candidates

1. Check Notifications: Look for updates in your USCIS account.
2. Prepare Documents: Gather all required documents, including educational certificates and work experience records.
3. File Your Petition: Submit your H1B petition promptly within the specified period.

What If You’re Not Selected?

1. Explore Other Visa Options: Consider alternatives like L-1, O-1, or CPT University.
2. Look Beyond the U.S.: Opportunities in other countries, like Canada, might also suit your career goals.
3. Try Again Next Year: Prepare early for the next fiscal year’s H1B lottery.