Understanding the H-1B Visa Lottery: Odds and Changes for 2025 FY

1. Overview of the 2025 H-1B Reform

The Department of Homeland Security’s reform for the 2025 fiscal year, titled "Improving the H-1B Registration Selection Process and Program Integrity", is set to bring transparency and fairness to the H-1B visa process from March 3, 2024. The key change is the implementation of the "one registration per person" rule, aiming to create a more equitable lottery system.

2. Recent Trends and Projections

The selection rate has varied over the years. In 2021, the selection rate was 46.17%, and in 2022, it was 43.76%. A huge surge in 2023 led to a lower rate of 26.89%, and in 2024, the rate further declined to 24.82%.

For 2025 FY, with the new policy in place, experts anticipate a more stable selection rate of 30%-50%, depending on the degree held.

3. Calculating the Odds in the New H-1B Lottery System

The H1B registration process in 2025 is getting a significant facelift. The big change? A new rule called "one registration per person". This means every applicant gets only one entry in the H1B lottery, aiming to cut down on the past issue of people trying to game the system with multiple entries.

Data Resource: USCIS

*The count of eligible registrations excludes duplicate registrations, those deleted by the prospective employer prior to the close of the registration period, and those with failed payments.

**The number of initial selections for FY 2024 – 110, 791 -- was smaller than in prior years primarily due to (a) establishing a higher anticipated petition filing rate by selected registrants based on prior years; and (b) higher projected Department of State approvals of H-1B1 visas, which count against the H-1B cap.

***Day1CPT.org's prediction, we cannot guarantee the finalized number

To understand the selection odds under the "one registration per person" system, we need to consider several factors:

• Total H-1B Visa Cap: The annual cap is 85,000, 120,000including 30,000 reserved for advanced degree holders from U.S. institutions. More than the cap is selected to account for non-filing selected candidates. For instance, if there are 120,000 slots, about 100,000 applications need to be drawn.

• Number of Registrations: The total number of registrations is expected to decrease, possibly aligning with the figures for FY2021 (270,000) and FY2022 (300,000).

• Distribution of Registrations: Assuming advanced degrees will be slightly more than bachelor's degree holders, we estimate 200,000 former and 150,000 registrations later.

With these assumptions, let's calculate the odds:

• First Round Odds: 90,000/350,000 = 25.71% for both groups.
• Second Round Odds (Advanced Degrees): Assuming an equal selection rate in the first round, there are about 148,571 advanced degree holders left. The odds for them in the second round are 30,000/150,000 × (1-90,000/350,000) = 14.86%.

Thus, bachelor's degree holders have a 25.71% chance. Advanced degree holders have a cumulative chance of approximately 46.27%, considering their opportunities in both rounds.

4. What Remains Unchanged and What’s New in 2025

• Unchanged Aspects: No alterations were made to the cap-gap period, the criteria for bypassing the H-1B lottery, or the definition of “specialty occupation”. Changes in the status of H-1B applicants were also minimal.

• Fee Structure: The online H1B registration fee for the fiscal year 2025 remains at $10, avoiding the speculated increase to $215.

In conclusion, while the "one registration per person" policy introduces a significant shift in the H-1B lottery dynamics for 2025, it is expected to bring a fairer selection process. Applicants, both with bachelor's and advanced degrees, should see a more predictable and equitable chance in the lottery.

References:

• DHS Issues Proposed Rule to Modernize the H-1B Specialty Occupation Worker Program
• H-1B Electronic Registration Process
• USCIS Announces Strengthened Integrity Measures for H-1B Program

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